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Updated at 10:20EDT 8/9


Sunday N 8/9
50% chance of thunderstorms
5% chance of severe weather


Monday 8/10
40% chance of thunderstorms
15% chance of severe weather

Posted: 7/06/2009 07:00:00 PM

I have limited time at the moment, but should have more this evening, and for certain tomorrow.

An upper level low will be dropping southeast toward the region tomorrow with its associated cold pool aloft. 500mb temperatures are projected between -15C and -17C. Meanwhile, low level southerly flow will transport moisture into southern New England, raising dew points into the low 60's. Surface temperatures are more uncertain as factoring in cloud cover will greatly limit highs for the day. Any sunshine however, and we could see decent instability develop. The mesoscale ETA has backed off instability, with a narrow CAPE profile for Keene. However, should we get sunshine, CAPE could reach 1000J/kg easily considering cold air aloft. Plus, the moist low levels will contribute to a very low LCL (between 100 and 300m). Again, it's all a matter of getting sunshine.

The wind profile tomorrow continues to look impressive. Starting at the surface, we have a moderate low level jet poking into the region from the south / southeast. The first kilometer is under 15kt southerly flow, turning to the southwest around 20kt between 1 and 2km. Above 2km, the winds become more unidirectional but increase to around 30 to 35kt through the mid levels. This is all under the left front quadrant of a 100kt westsouthwest upper level jet. Indeed, given destabilization tomorrow, it could become very very interesting. This includes the threat for large hail and damaging winds, as well as a few isolated tornadoes.

Posted: 6/30/2009 01:05:00 PM

Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms have sprung up from eastern PA into central NY. The SPC has placed these areas along with far western New England in a severe thunderstorm watch.

At the moment, stratus clouds remain locked in over eastern MA and most of NH and ME. These areas are struggling to reach even the 70's. Meanwhile, the sun has been out across CT and western MA where temperatures have reached the mid to upper 70's and are on their way to highs in the low 80's. The Keene area remains on the boundary between these two air masses. The sun has peaked out once or twice, with temperatures in the low 70's at the moment. We should see some more sun this afternoon before convective influences rebuild the clouds back over us. There remains a decent influx of low level moisture with dew points in the low to mid 60's across most of southern New England up into western NH and VT. This is aided by a 20kt southeasterly low level jet from Long Island into western New England. This flow, with a southwesterly 500mb jet is producing 30 to 40kt of shear.

With moderate dew points and rising surface temperatures, surface CAPE has already eclipsed 1000J/kg over western New England and up to 2000J/kg now over CT and southwest MA. An 3km EHI of 3 has shown up in northern CT as of noon EDT which is suggestive of a high severe weather potential. Anybody with interests in southwestern New England today should closely monitor the development severe weather situation this afternoon.





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